I'm an Assistant Professor in the Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science at the University of Waterloo, in Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. I'm originally from the UK, and moved to Canada in 2013 to work as a postdoc at McGill University. I received my PhD from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in 2012, an MSc (in statistics) from University College London in 2008, and an MA (in mathematics) from Trinity College, Cambridge, in 2007.
My primary research interest is in causal inference, with a specific focus on adaptive treatment strategies and precision medicine. My work derives and explores statistical methods that use data to help inform treatment decisions tailored to individual patient characteristics.
I am particularly interested in addressing "real-world" limitations of traditional analysis methods. These range from issues that arise from data collection (such as measurement error and unmeasured confounders), to assumptions about the structure of our data or models (such as interactions between patients), and matters of implementation (how can we involve patients in the decision-making process?).
I also strongly believe in the importance of good statistical communication. I have served on the editorial board of the statistics magazine Significance for many years, and am the media representative for the Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science at the University of Waterloo. I have given interviews on topics including workplace equity data, COVID-19, and the drawing of teams in soccer tournaments. Perhaps most (in)famously, I used stats to help me win a lot of free donuts from a Canadian coffee chain.
Beyond statistics I'm a big fan of trivia (especially pub trivia nights), and have appeared on a number of game shows on British television. My other hobbies are on a semi-random rotation between chess, poker, playing the guitar, and video games. I am not very good at any of them.
Some of my more recent and/or interesting papers are listed below (with a short explanation of each). If a paper isn't available online, please email me for a copy!
- D Spicker and M P Wallace (2020), Measurement error and precision medicine: Error‐prone tailoring covariates in dynamic treatment regimes. Statistics in Medicine. 39(26): 3732-3755. [Link] Exploring the role measurement error can play in precision medicine.
- M P Wallace, E E M Moodie, D A Stephens, (2016). Model assessment in dynamic treatment regimen estimation via double robustness. Biometrics. 72(3): 855-864. [Link] Demonstrates how to use the double robustness property to assess nuisance models in G-estimation analyses.
- M P Wallace, E E M Moodie, (2015). Doubly-robust dynamic treatment regimen estimation via weighted least squares. Biometrics. 71(3): 636-644. [Link] Introduces a doubly-robust approach to DTR estimation via weighted ordinary least squares.
Some introductory/review articles:
- M P Wallace (2020). Analysis in Imperfect World. Significance. 17(1): 14-19. [Link] An introductory article on measurement error. Selected for the 2021 edition of The Best Writing on Mathematics published by Princeton University Press.
- M P Wallace, E E M Moodie, D A Stephens, (2016). SMART thinking: a review of recent developments in sequential multiple assignment randomized trials. Current Epidemiology Reports. [In Press] An overview of sequential multiple assignment randomized trials; a common study design for DTR analyses.
- M P Wallace, E E M Moodie, (2014). Personalizing Medicine: A Review of Adaptive Treatment Strategies. Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety. 23: 580-585. [Link] Introductory concepts and example analysis.
My R package for DTR estimation, DTRreg:
- DTRreg package on CRAN
- M P Wallace, E E M Moodie, D A Stephens, (2016). Dynamic treatment regimen estimation via regression-based techniques: Introducing R package DTRreg. Journal of Statistical Software. [Accepted pending minor revisions.] Introduces and demonstrates the DTRreg package.
...and now for something completely different:
- M P Wallace, C E Stewart, M J Moseley, D A Stephens, A R Fielder, (2013). Compliance with occlusion therapy for childhood amblyopia.Investigative Ophthalmology and Visual Science. 54: 6158-6166. [Link] Nothing to do with DTRs, but an interesting analysis of compliance with treatment among children with the eye condition amblyopia.